If the race for Wyoming Governor is a chaotic scramble, the race to replace Senator Cynthia Lummis is shaping up to be a coronation. Following Senator Lummis’s announcement that she will not seek re-election in 2026, Representative Harriet Hageman has wasted no time launching her bid for the upper chamber, and prediction markets are responding with overwhelming confidence.
While the Governor’s race remains fractured, the Kalshi market for “Republican nominee for Senate in Wyoming” tells a story of immediate consolidation around the state’s sitting Congresswoman.
The Market Snapshot
Traders on Kalshi are pricing this race as a near-certainty, a rarity this early in an election cycle.
Current Kalshi Market Odds (Implied Probability):
- Harriet Hageman: 87% (Trending Up)
- Reid Rasner: 11%
- Jimmy Skovgard: 6%
The “Yes” share for Hageman is trading at 87¢, a premium price that suggests the market views her as the inevitable successor. Conversely, the field is trading at penny-stock levels, indicating little faith in a viable challenger emerging from the current roster.
Candidate Deep Dives
Harriet Hageman (The Heavy Favorite)
- Current Price: 87¢
- The Narrative: Hageman is not just an incumbent; she is the giant-slayer who defeated Liz Cheney by nearly 40 points in 2022. Her quick entry into the Senate race, immediately following Lummis’s retirement news, was a calculated move to clear the field.
- Key Support: She has already secured endorsements from powerful backers like the Club for Growth and key local figures like Secretary of State Chuck Gray.
- Market Sentiment: At 87%, the market believes the “primary” has already been won in the backrooms. Her alignment with the Trump wing of the party, combined with her establishment credentials as a natural resources attorney, makes her nearly unassailable in a Wyoming GOP primary.
Reid Rasner (The Wildcard)
- Current Price: 11¢
- Background: A wealthy businessman and financial executive who previously challenged Senator John Barrasso in the 2024 primary.
- The Narrative: Rasner is the “checkbook candidate.” He gained national headlines for an audacious (and unsuccessful) bid to buy TikTok, positioning himself as an “America First” entrepreneur. However, his political track record is shaky; he lost to Barrasso by a wide margin (approx. 68% to 25%) in 2024.
- The Risk/Reward: Rasner has shown a willingness to self-fund and spend aggressively on media. While he likely cannot beat Hageman, his presence ensures she will have to spend money. Traders holding Rasner at 11¢ are betting on a black swan event—a Hageman scandal or a massive anti-establishment wave that Rasner somehow captures.
Jimmy Skovgard (The Grassroots Outsider)
- Current Price: 11¢ (Implied ~6% probability)
- Background: A Wyoming Army National Guard veteran and small business owner with no prior political office.
- The Narrative: Skovgard is running on a pure “citizen legislator” platform, heavily emphasizing term limits and his lack of political debts. He positions himself as the true outsider compared to Hageman (a sitting DC official) and Rasner (a wealthy executive).
- Market Reality: Without high name ID or a massive war chest, Skovgard faces a steep climb. His 6% probability reflects a “participation” chance rather than a path to victory.
And The Winner Is…
The divergence between the Governor’s market (fractured, competitive) and the Senate market (consolidated, decisive) is striking. The Kalshi data suggests that the Wyoming GOP base views Hageman as the rightful heir to the Lummis seat.
The “Lummis Domino” cleared the path for Hageman, and she has taken it. Unless a new, high-profile challenger enters the race (such as Governor Mark Gordon, though unlikely given his term limits and political profile), Hageman’s 87¢ price tag is likely to inch toward 99¢ as the field solidifies.
Market Verdict: Hageman is the “blue chip” stock of Wyoming politics right now. The only volatility left in this market is likely to come from external shocks rather than internal competition.
AntlersArch founder and the voice behind Teton Tattle.
