If you’ve been enjoying Jackson’s suspiciously warm, suspiciously sunny, suspiciously not November-ish weather… well, enjoy your last few days of it. Because, according to multiple forecasts, premium apps, national models, NOAA long-range outlooks, and the kind of charts only true weather degenerates love, the vibes shift hard next week.
And yes, before you ask: I’m a massive weather nerd. I live for this stuff. I read the Climate Prediction Center the way normal people read novels. I run high-res models on my phone for fun. And I use Carrot Weather, the sassiest and most accurate premium weather app on Earth. The same one that literally saved my family’s life from an EF3 tornado in Lincoln, Nebraska. If Carrot says “brace yourself,” I listen.
And Carrot is now whispering sweet November chaos into our ears.
First: The Calm Before the Turkey
Through Sunday, Jackson stays in full “Fall Magazine Spread” mode:
- Sunny Friday
- Light clouds Saturday
- Sunny again Sunday
- Highs in the mid-40s
- Nights in the teens/twenties
- Zero drama
A perfect weekend to hike, bike, pretend you’re still doing yard work, or smugly remind your out-of-state relatives that Jackson doesn’t really have “fall,” it just has extended pre-winter optimism.
❄️ Then Tuesday Arrives… And Oh Boy
Carrot is already hinting at:
- Light snow Tuesday day
- Heavy snow Tuesday night
- Temps from 19° to 36°
- Up to 3+ inches of snow depending on elevation and timing
- A spicy little moisture tap that could easily overperform (it’s Jackson after all)
Precip chances aren’t overwhelmingly high yet (Carrot is calling ~29%), but the structure of the storm is the important part: A colder trough dropping in right as Thanksgiving week starts.
This is classic “November finally woke up” energy.
🌨️ Wednesday: The Main Event?
This is where the models get excited.
Carrot shows:
- Morning snow
- Afternoon freezing rain potential (a Jackson Thanksgiving tradition as old as time)
- Heavy snow Wednesday night
- An estimated 7–8 inches of snow in the Wednesday model runs
- 85% precipitation chance
- A high of 36°, but it drops during the storm
This one has “holiday travel headache” written all over it.
NOAA: The Pattern Is About to Flip
The Climate Prediction Center’s Thanksgiving week outlook backs up what apps like Carrot are hinting at:
- Below normal temperatures across the West
- Above normal precipitation for Wyoming
- A slight risk of heavy snow from Nov. 28 – Dec. 3
- A broad western trough taking up residence just in time for leftovers
Translation:
Winter may be fashionably late this year, but she’s about to sashay down the Tetons runway.
So… Are We Getting a Big Storm or Not?
Here’s the honest forecast breakdown:
- The setup is there
- Carrot is already sniffing something
- NOAA sees the pattern shift
- Long-range ensembles show colder, wetter conditions
- But storm track details this far out can still swing wildly
In other words:
We’re on the runway for a legit Thanksgiving-week storm, but final boarding is not yet confirmed.
If you’re traveling next Tuesday or Wednesday, keep an eye on the updates, or better yet, ask a weather nerd. The type who reads precipitation charts like holy scripture. Preferably one who survived a tornado thanks to a premium app with a snarky personality.
Bottom Line for Jackson
- Enjoy this warm, sunny stretch, it’s the last you’ll get for a while
- Expect a colder, snowier pattern from Tuesday onward
- Wednesday could be messy
- Travel may be spicy
- Skiers and boarders….start stretching
- Locals: Time to find the ice scraper you misplaced in April
And yes, I’ll keep tracking this storm all weekend like the weather-obsessed guy I am.
If Carrot starts screaming, you’ll be the first to know.
AntlersArch founder and the voice behind Teton Tattle.
