The political landscape of Wyoming underwent a seismic shift this week following Senator Cynthia Lummis’s announcement that she will not seek re-election in 2026. This decision has triggered a chain reaction across the Cowboy State, most notably clearing the path for Representative Harriet Hageman to launch a Senate bid.
For prediction market traders, the immediate impact is visible in the race for Wyoming Governor. With the massive favorite (Hageman) removing herself from the gubernatorial equation to pursue the upper chamber, the market for the Republican nominee for Governor has been thrown wide open, with one clear early beneficiary: Brent Bien.
Here is an in-depth look at the Kalshi market data and the candidates vying to replace term-limited Governor Mark Gordon.
The Market Shakeup
Prior to the Lummis announcement, Harriet Hageman was a heavy favorite in speculative markets for any statewide office she chose to pursue. Her pivot to the Senate race has fundamentally altered the probabilities for the Governor’s mansion.
Current Kalshi Market Odds (Implied Probability):
- Brent Bien: 46% (Trending Up)
- Eric Barlow: 15%
- Chuck Gray: 15%
- Megan Degenfelder: 14%
- Harriet Hageman: 5% (Trending Down)
The market is currently pricing in a “Bien vs. The Field” scenario. Hageman’s 5% lingering probability likely accounts for the slim chance she changes her mind, but for all intents and purposes, traders are treating her as a non-combatant in this specific theater.
Candidate Deep Dives
With the field reshaping, four key figures have emerged as the primary contenders.
Brent Bien (The Frontrunner)
- Current Price: 51¢
- Background: Retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel.
- Political Standing: Bien is not a newcomer. He finished a strong second to Governor Mark Gordon in the 2022 primary, capturing nearly 30% of the vote running to Gordon’s right.
- The Case for Bien: He has successfully consolidated the “Freedom Caucus” wing of the state party. With Hageman out of the lane, Bien inherits the bulk of the anti-establishment/grassroots conservative support. His name recognition from 2022 gives him a massive head start in organization and fundraising.
- Market Sentiment: His surge to 46% reflects the reality that he is the only declared candidate who has already run a statewide competitive race for this specific office.
Chuck Gray (The Firebrand)
- Current Price: 19¢
- Background: Current Wyoming Secretary of State; former State Representative.
- Political Standing: Gray is perhaps the most vocal Trump-aligned figure in the state government. He won his Secretary of State race decisively and has built a brand around election integrity and aggressive conservative policy.
- The Case for Gray: If the race becomes a contest of “who is the most conservative,” Gray can match Bien rhetoric for rhetoric. He holds a statewide office, which provides a bully pulpit.
- The Risk: Gray and Bien appeal to the same voter base. If they both run, they risk splitting the populist vote, potentially opening a lane for a more moderate alternative.
Eric Barlow (The Legislator)
- Current Price: 19¢
- Background: State Senator (District 23); former Speaker of the Wyoming House; Veterinarian and Rancher.
- Political Standing: Barlow represents the “traditional” Wyoming Republican—ranching roots, legislative experience, and a focus on governance over grievance.
- The Case for Barlow: In a fractured field where Bien and Gray fight for the right wing, Barlow could consolidate the center-right, establishment, and business wings of the party (the coalition that typically supports Gov. Gordon).
- Market Sentiment: At 15%, he is a value buy for those who believe the “Gordon Coalition” is still the majority in Wyoming Republican politics.
Megan Degenfelder (The Policy Hawk)
- Current Price: 18¢
- Background: Current Superintendent of Public Instruction; former government relations executive for coal/oil firms.
- Political Standing: Degenfelder is a rising star who won a tough race for Superintendent in 2022. She bridges the gap between the establishment (industry background) and the grassroots (parental rights in education).
- The Case for Degenfelder: She is young, articulate, and holds a powerful statewide platform. Education is a top-tier issue, and she can campaign on concrete wins in that sector.
- The Risk: Like Gray, she might be eyeing the timeline. Does she risk a safe seat for a crowded Governor’s primary, or wait for the future?
Summary & Predictions
The “Lummis Domino” has fallen, and the board is set. The Kalshi market correctly identifies Brent Bien as the early favorite. He has the donor lists, the volunteer network, and the “unfinished business” narrative from 2022.
However, the combined probability of the field (Gray + Barlow + Degenfelder) is still roughly 44%. The smart money should watch for:
- Consolidation: Does Chuck Gray endorse Bien, or does he run? If Gray sits out, Bien’s stock likely moves toward 60-70%.
- The Anti-Bien Lane: Does the establishment rally around Barlow or Degenfelder? If the field remains crowded with three or four viable candidates, Bien’s 30-35% base (proven in 2022) could be enough to win a plurality victory in the primary.
Market Verdict: Bien is the momentum play, but the race is far from over.
AntlersArch founder and the voice behind Teton Tattle.
