It’s been a wild few weeks in the world of politics, and the prediction markets are taking notice. With the federal government finally reopening after the latest shutdown standoff and Elon Musk reportedly “back in the fold” advising key Republican power brokers, JD Vance has surged to the top of the 2028 presidential betting boards.
According to both Polymarket and Kalshi, Vance now sits comfortably in first place, trading around 29–31%, while California Governor Gavin Newsom remains a distant second at 20%. The next tier of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Donald Trump (Not eligible due to our constitution), and Marco Rubio are all hovering in the single digits.
Vance’s Presidential Momentum
The prediction charts show that Vance’s odds have been climbing steadily since late summer, and the recent end to the shutdown appears to have given him another boost. Market watchers point to a confluence of factors: Musk’s renewed involvement with Republican digital and energy initiatives, Vance’s growing national recognition, and a fundraising base energized by the perception that he’s the “future of the post-Trump GOP.”
The Democratic Dilemma
For Democrats, the numbers are far less inspiring. Newsom’s 20% shows some staying power, but there’s little enthusiasm beyond him. Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro barely register above the noise.
Even AOC, who once inspired massive grassroots buzz, sits under 10%, a reflection of a party struggling to rally behind a fresh face or unified message ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Recent Election Results Send Mixed Signals
Republicans might want to keep the champagne corked for now. The recent off-year elections in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia didn’t exactly go their way. Democrats overperformed expectations, flipping several key suburban districts, a warning shot that the GOP’s coalition may still be fragile heading into 2026.
Still, the markets seem to believe that short-term turbulence won’t derail Vance’s long-term trajectory. The VP’s brand of part populist, part policy wonk, part Silicon Valley whisperer, is proving appealing to bettors who see him as the bridge between Trump’s movement and a more modern conservative message.
2028 Election Betting Market Snapshot
| Candidate | Party | Odds (Polymarket) | Odds (Kalshi) |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | Republican | 29% | 31% |
| Gavin Newsom | Democratic | 20% | 20% |
| AOC | Democratic | 9% | 6% |
| Donald Trump | Republican | 4% | 6% |
| Marco Rubio | Republican | 4% | 5% |
| Others | — | <4% | <4% |
With Musk once again orbiting the GOP galaxy and the Democrats still trying to find their North Star, the early outlook for 2028 feels less like a prediction and more like a mood swing. But if you believe the markets, and let’s face it, they’ve been eerily right before, JD Vance may have just gone from “maybe” to “likely.”
Stay tuned — we’ll keep watching the betting boards so you don’t have to.
AntlersArch founder and the voice behind Teton Tattle.
