A new prediction market from Kalshi has Harriet Hageman as the clear frontrunner to secure the Republican nomination for Governor of Wyoming in 2026.
As of today’s trading:
- Harriet Hageman is given a 66% chance to win the nomination.
- “Yes” shares are trading at 80¢, suggesting strong confidence in her path to the top of the GOP ticket.
- Brent Bien lags behind with 23% odds, with “Yes” shares trading at 30¢.
These numbers reflect investor sentiment, not polling data, but they offer a compelling snapshot of where the political wind might be blowing.
📊 What’s Kalshi?
Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market where users can trade on real-world events. Think of it like Wall Street for political and cultural outcomes. Their markets are settled based on official sources, like state election results in this case.
For the Republican gubernatorial nominee market:
- The contract will resolve to Yes if Harriet Hageman officially secures the nomination according to state records.
- It’s a mutually exclusive event. So if Hageman wins, Bien cannot (and vice versa).
Why This Matters
Wyoming is a reliably red state, and the Republican nominee is often the de facto front-runner for the general election. If Hageman locks this up, she may be poised to take the reins from outgoing Governor Mark Gordon, who is term-limited.
Hageman’s Momentum
Hageman, who defeated Liz Cheney in 2022 with the backing of Donald Trump, has continued to build her conservative base statewide. With name recognition, grassroots energy, and national support, she’s viewed as the establishment-shaking frontrunner.
Brent Bien, a former Marine and vocal critic of COVID-era mandates, has gained traction with some liberty-minded voters but remains far behind in the prediction markets.
What to Watch Next
- Official candidate declarations and campaign finance reports in early 2026
- State GOP convention positioning
- Endorsements from key figures like Sen. Barrasso or President Trump
Stay tuned, we’ll keep tracking the odds (and the drama) as the 2026 race heats up.
AntlersArch founder and the voice behind Teton Tattle.
