Prediction Markets Give Edge to Gavin Newsom in '28 Dem Nomination Race

According to the latest odds from the Kalshi prediction market, California Governor Gavin Newsom is currently the frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, though the race is still wide open.

Here’s where the money is flowing as of today for the 2028 Democrat Presidential Nominee:

Gavin Newsom — 19%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 14%
Pete Buttigieg — 10%
Wes Moore — 7%
Josh Shapiro — 6%
Andy Beshear — 5%
Jon Ossoff — 5%
Kamala Harris — 4%

While Newsom leads, no candidate is breaking 20%, suggesting Democratic voters and political bettors alike see a volatile field with plenty of room for surprise surges.

Kalshi’s market-based odds work much like sports betting futures as prices reflect the collective judgment (or gut instinct) of traders willing to put real money on the line. This is similar to the way Polymarket operates, and in case you missed it, we recently covered how Polymarket’s traders have Republican J.D. Vance as the most likely overall winner in 2028. You can read that breakdown here.

It’s Early and the Dems are a Mess

It’s still absurdly early. We haven’t even hit the 2026 mid-terms, but the prediction markets are already assigning probabilities and setting narratives. Whether these early leaders can hold their position through the inevitable gaffes, viral moments, and donor drama of the next three years remains to be seen. Overall, the Democrats are a mess in terms of leadership and messaging. A clear voice and leader will need to emerge soon if they have any shot of contesting JD Vance or Marco Rubio in ’28.