With just over a year until the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election, the prediction markets are showing one clear takeaway: it’s the Republicans’ race to lose.
Republicans Favored 95% to Win the Governorship
According to Polymarket, traders now give Republicans a 95% chance of retaining the governor’s mansion in Cheyenne, with Democrats languishing at just 4%.
That near-certainty has held steady for weeks, reflecting Wyoming’s deep red political landscape, a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since Dave Freudenthal left office in 2011.
In short, unless there’s a political earthquake, the November 2026 election will decide which Republican, not which party, holds the keys to the Capitol.
Hageman Still the Heavy GOP Favorite — But Bien Isn’t Gone
Over on Kalshi, the focus shifts to who that Republican will be.
Current frontrunner Harriet Hageman, Wyoming’s lone U.S. Representative and a close ally of President Trump, still holds a 64% chance to win the GOP nomination for governor.
That’s down from around 80% earlier this summer, as seen in our July analysis.
Trailing far behind is Brent Bien, the retired Marine colonel and former gubernatorial candidate, who sits at 16%.
Hageman’s odds dipped slightly over the past month, possibly reflecting unease about whether she’ll officially jump into the race or stay in Congress. Still, she remains the commanding favorite in both polling and prediction markets.
Outlook: All Eyes on the GOP Primary
Wyoming’s Republican primary has become the de facto governor’s race. With the general election virtually decided by math, the real action will unfold in the 2026 summer primary, where Hageman’s name recognition and Trump-world backing give her a major advantage.
Still, Bien’s 16% odds show there’s some appetite for an insurgent challenge, especially among Wyoming’s more traditional conservatives who may prefer a less D.C.-tied candidate.
Until then, the betting markets have spoken: the road to the Governor’s Office runs straight through the Republican Party, and, for now, Harriet Hageman is in the driver’s seat.
AntlersArch founder and the voice behind Teton Tattle.
