Jackson Hole, WY – Real‑money traders on Polymarket are already placing their bets on the 2028 presidential election showdown, and the collective wisdom currently favors Vice President JD Vance, who carries a 27 % implied probability of clinching the White House. Here’s how the rest of the field looks:
| Candidate | Market Odds |
|---|---|
| JD Vance (VP) | 27 % |
| Gavin Newsom | 14 % |
| Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez | 10 % |
| Josh Shapiro | 5 % |
| Marco Rubio | 6 % |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 4 % |
| Kamala Harris | 4 % |
Vice President Vance: From Hillbilly Memoir to Second‑in‑Command
- Rise to the Vice Presidency: After winning his Senate seat in 2022, Vance was tapped as Trump’s running mate in 2024, elevating him to the nation’s second‑highest office.
- Key Responsibilities: As VP, he presides over the Senate, casts tie‑breaking votes, and leads major initiatives on opioid recovery and economic revitalization, issues he championed back in Ohio’s Rust Belt.
- Policy Priorities: Vance continues to push economic nationalism, strengthening American manufacturing and addressing the opioid epidemic through targeted recovery programs.
- Political Profile: His best‑selling memoir Hillbilly Elegy remains a cultural touchstone, and his alliance with conservative heavyweights has kept him at the helm when projecting the 2028 field.
- JD Vance will visit Jackson on July 29th, pegged as an early fundraiser for the 2026 midterms that may serve as a bellwether for the 2028 election.
Sleeper Pick: Governor Josh Shapiro (5 %)
- Popular Pennsylvania Governor: Shapiro should cruise to re‑election in 2026 with bipartisan appeal, overseeing strong economic growth and a historic infrastructure package.
- Play on Moderates: His centrist track record, which is tough on crime yet pro-investment in green energy, resonates in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
- Undervalued by Markets: At just 5 %, Shapiro offers “value buy” territory: Traders who believe a moderate Democrat can peel off suburban swing voters see this as a bargain.
- Watch for National Profile: If he kicks off an early fundraising surge or lands a few high‑profile speaking slots, those odds could climb sharply.
What Do These Odds Mean?
Polymarket lets anyone buy “Yes” shares on future political outcomes. A 27 ¢ price on “Vance wins” reflects a 27 % chance in the market’s view; 5 ¢ on “Shapiro wins” implies a 5 % shot. But any surprise candidate jumps in, fundraising numbers shift, or a major news event drops, and these percentages can swing dramatically.
Early Surprises and Wild Cards
- Gavin Newsom (14 %): California’s governor hasn’t officially declared, yet he’s drawing serious action.
- AOC (10 %): Some see the Bronx‑born progressive as the Democratic firebrand to rally behind.
- Mid‑Tier Contenders: Names like Rubio, Whitmer, and Harris all sit below 6 %, each with their own donor bases and regional strengths to leverage.
Why Jackson Should Care
Our valley thrives on independent thinking, hiking through snow‑dusty trails at dawn, and debating national politics over flat whites. While Jackson might not choreograph Washington’s next move, Polymarket’s odds are a fun, real‑time barometer of where the race could be headed.
AntlersArch founder and the voice behind Teton Tattle.
