Wildfire Risk Rises for Summer 2025: What To Expect In Wyoming

As the West heats up, so does the risk of wildfires, and this summer could be another scorcher. According to the National Interagency Fire Center’s June 2025 outlook, fire activity across the U.S. is expected to intensify, with above-normal wildfire potential projected for large portions of the Northwest, Southwest, California, and Northern Rockies.

In May, wildfires already burned at 133% of the 10-year average, with one of the earliest-ever 100°F days hitting Minnesota on May 11 and strong winds fueling destructive blazes like the Camp House Fire (which destroyed 144 structures).

For Wyoming: The Southwest and northeast corners are in the hot seat. Fire risk is above normal in southwest Wyoming for June, with a shift to northeast Wyoming by August and September. The rest of the state, including Jackson Hole and Teton County, remains at normal risk for now.

Other Major Regional Highlights:

• Northern Rockies & Great Basin: Expect fire season to peak in July and August, especially in Idaho and Montana. Long-term drought, fast-melting snowpack, and abundant fine fuels (like cheatgrass) are fueling concern.
• California: Above-normal potential all summer. The Sacramento Valley already saw 100+ degree heat in May, and coastal marine layers may not be enough to tamp it down.
• Southwest (AZ/NM): Peak fire activity expected in June, tapering off with monsoon rains in July. Live fuel moisture is at critically low levels in many areas.
• Eastern U.S.: Most of the East is expected to remain at normal risk, with exceptions in northern Minnesota and coastal Carolinas, where drought and low humidity are still concerns.

U.S. Wildfire Outlook Snapshot (June–September 2025)

(Source: National Interagency Fire Center – June 2025 Outlook)

🧯 Fire Prevention Tip for Jackson Hole: Even though Jackson & GTNP are currently at LOW risk according to the NPS, early summer is the perfect time to prep defensible space around cabins and double-check your evacuation plans. One spark in a dry windstorm is all it takes.

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